Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
5/3/2024 11:22am
... have had a failed presidency, nominated paul volcker at the fed. treasury secretary's have generally been people who are peers and can advise presidents. this president has staff, literally. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
4/9/2024 4:33pm
... under joe biden were the second-highest of all the presidents since 1960. richard nixon was the highest. you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
4/4/2024 10:07am
... legacy. he doesn't want to be remembered as arthur burns. he doesn't want to be remembered as a paul volcker. he wants to be jerome powell who got it once he got away from being behind the curve. so far, so good is what we think. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
3/5/2024 3:48pm
... thing we looked at when we went back to the volcker era he made the inflation he eventually slayed look a lot harder than it actually was. that is why the two things were more comparable. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Real Yield
3/1/2024 5:09pm
... meetings last year prior to december. he pushed back on looser financial conditions as a reason to stay on course to get the job done, invoking his inner paul volcker. for some reason in december, ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
2/27/2024 2:04am
... the fed is considering this may be also. what is your take? cole: when paul volcker first sat down with ronald reagan, the president, because milton ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/8/2024 1:39pm
... to the extent you can avoid it, you do. jonathan: does that way on you, the experience of volcker and co.? tom: a lot of people read about the history of fed tightening cycles not ending well. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/8/2024 1:39pm
... 1986, after the volcker era, inflation was under 2%. the fed, which had tightened significantly, started loosening. in 1987, basically doubled, and the fed started increasing again. that has happened in history. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/7/2024 11:25am
... when paul volcker did it and it had the impact that it had, that was catastrophic to the economy, we did it again with more debt but it has not mattered because there is another source of capital, private credit. lisa: you care about the auction? ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/7/2024 11:24am
... paul volcker. when you look at when paul volcker inverted yield curve and shut down credit, which has been the case in private credit and private equity. when he did that in the early 19 80's you had a generational low ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
1/24/2024 12:09pm
... the 3, 3, 3 but we had a positively shaped yield curve, we have a risk premium. if you look at 10 year yields, the u.s. you can either put in the volcker fed or take out the volcker fed, within the volcker ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
1/19/2024 12:41pm
... we will get to two point something. but the fed is not there yet. it has to be cautious about acting too soon. a key lesson of history is to keep at it, as paul volcker ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
12/27/2023 8:20pm
... trajectory in the u.s. and how they are able to diversify away from traditional liberal arts offerings. vonnie: more broadly, november saw the best returns to municipals since the paul volcker era. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets European Close
12/22/2023 4:07pm
... and therefore you see the dollar coming back with a vengeance in the early part of next year. guy: in the past central bankers have talked about their fear of a re-acceleration. they want to be volcker. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
12/19/2023 0:25am
... behaving more like paul volcker. do you think he is seduced by the prospect of a soft landing? bill: i think that is certainly what he is trying to achieve and if i was in his position i would do the same. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
12/13/2023 6:20pm
... in private? in public he presented as very hawkish. i'm curious if you saw him betray any signs of doubt or skepticism. george: paul volcker believed inflation robbed everybody, ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
12/13/2023 6:19pm
... for the market. something like that happening comparatively soon. i did work at prudential securities on paul volcker was on the board. one night late in london he told me the way you cure inflation is ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
12/13/2023 6:18pm
... the top of the next hour, about 40 minutes away. we welcome george ball, former ceo of prudential securities he was close with paul volcker with the last crisis. he's the chairman of sanders ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/17/2023 12:48pm
... the past are hugely faulted including the analog of jerome powell in comparison to paul volcker. how do we get rid of our ancient analogs to get to our next strategic theory? mohamed: the one thing we need ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
11/7/2023 6:04pm
... the. the beginning we were talking about the feds praise and volcker, how he would call it required reading and in stark contrast to conventional wisdom which casts arthur burns is not ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Americas
11/7/2023 3:09pm
... result it doesn't want to make that mistake again. i'm wondering whether what happened in the 1970's is still very present in its current thinking. it wants to be paul volcker and it doesn't want to be burns and ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
11/2/2023 5:14pm
... leon: i think so. he looked at the fed, they pause but with an indication they could raise down the road. i think our chairman is going to be careful making sure he does not end up in a paul volcker situation. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/2/2023 11:03am
... about this is not paul volcker. it is jerome powell and he has to wake up and worry about being an arthur burns where inflation gets out of control. adamant they need to be careful about the soft landing. scarlet: a pause might pave the ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
11/2/2023 0:45am
... should that look like? carmen: i think one big difference between this tightening cycle, and paul volcker's tightening cycle was it brought the emerging markets, the middle and high income ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
10/23/2023 3:10am
... saw that paul volcker had to correct. john: it is a difficult situation in the u.s. with the economy cratering. we have the fantastic q3 gdp number coming out but these long ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Americas
9/27/2023 2:04pm
... since paul volcker took over at the fed and brought down inflation, what we see is inflation and real rates tend to run about the same level, around 2% until the fed artificially pushed down yields after the great financial crisis. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
9/27/2023 12:44pm
... real yield enough? i am not sure it's enough. go back to what you and i lived through in the paul volcker days. where did he have to stop? he stopped at 26% fed funds rates. i'm not saying we will get ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
8/27/2023 10:22pm
... those risks are there. i must tell you, when i heard the navigating by the stars and cloudy skies, i was trying to imagine of paul volcker would have said something like that, and i just cannot get there. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
8/24/2023 3:10am
... fed to begin cutting rates at some point at the end of the gear next year. i think that is off the table and if we go back to the 1980's, volcker prematurely cut interest rates. if he had not done that, there ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
8/23/2023 5:19am
... greenspan or paul volcker in his speech on friday? mark: i think bloomberg economics has his right and is more greenspan. greenspan was known as someone who achieved while fed chairman, ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
8/21/2023 3:20am
... in 1978. mostly agriculture in that region of the united states. about five years into it, they decided they had to get share full occur -- chair volcker to come to their annual meeting. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
8/20/2023 10:19pm
... bigger and they wanted to get paul volcker to attend. they moved it to the beautiful jackson lake lodge outside of jackson wyoming, the grand tetons, a big, wide fishing spot. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
8/16/2023 0:32am
... help support the currency, which has been softening and and could be a challenge. but james, if you know, if the economy is definitely the economy is weaker. but a lot of, you know, hard core paul volcker esque central bankers and economists would say, look, i'm sorry, you have ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets European Close
7/25/2023 3:17pm
... than this having been a great volcker move. when i think about the technical details about inflation, we are going to start get some positive -- start getting some positive basic facts in u.s. inflation from august. the market will see those from ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Real Yield
7/21/2023 5:03pm
... the long run too. katie: megan, tony brings up paul volcker, let's talk about ben bernanke. he heard from the former fed chair and he weighed in on the next move saying it looks clear the fed will raise another 25 basis points added to next -- at _ ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
7/20/2023 12:36pm
... undecipherable as it is now. this is not the gang of four kind of disagreement on the fed that got rid of paul volcker but there is still a lot of disagreement among members of the open market committee around ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
7/13/2023 10:08am
... used the word volcker. when you have so many companies that are still down 50% or 60% from their 52-week high, that is not the time to make a major downside that. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
7/7/2023 12:58pm
... are considering. the question is whether that this inversion happens before or after a recession. in the post-greenspan were posed paul volcker area commit happens before the recession. we see a diss inversion beyond ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
7/3/2023 10:40am
... volcker. we thought that for some time and personally strongly for some time, the idea that chairman powell has to keep at it. you have to persist in the ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
6/20/2023 12:42pm
... they don't want to kill fed credibility. powell is a second term chair. he wants to leave with the legacy of being paul volcker ii . he doesn't want to be the one ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
6/20/2023 10:40am
... historical record within a reasonable amount of time, facing this disinflationary cycle of how to do enough and to do enough -- this is not the paul volcker fed that said we want this and we want it now. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
6/16/2023 5:22am
... missing the fact that even though the fed may not hike rates much further, they will stay at this elevated level for some time. paul volcker spoke about years before we would see the first rate cut. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets European Close
6/14/2023 3:56pm
... are unhappy with that. when paul volcker got that, that was it. he resigned following that. interesting. does it help to keep this optionality open? to keep it alive? it depends what you think ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
6/12/2023 12:40pm
... precedented -- we are in a completely unprecedented environment here. tom: you beautifully framed that active volcker. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Real Yield
6/9/2023 5:04pm
... and the paul volcker aggressive monetary campaign. i think it's a skip. there is a reason they use that term. i don't want to be to excessive about fed speak but the pause moved in the skip came in. the skip insinuates that the fed ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
6/2/2023 2:08am
... technology seeing the headline job cuts all the time, but for blue-collar labor, there is a strong backdrop. rishaad: when volcker did it, he was still cutting rates two ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
5/19/2023 5:42am
... in 1978, when the fed started hiking rates, and the first year before paul booker became chairman, 10 banks fell. in volcker's first year, another 10 banks fell institutions whose assets are fixed term loan at ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
5/17/2023 3:07am
... inflation is rising less quickly. what is driving the hawks to be hawkish in this environment? if you look at jay powell, for instance, what it is heroes is paul volcker, who stopped ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
5/5/2023 3:11am
... even paul volcker, who is jay powell's hero in many ways -- he carried his book around when he first came to the fed -- even he in 1981 stopped hiking rates two months before inflation peaked. absolutely. this lag has just -- i'm _ ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
5/4/2023 3:22am
... in 1981 we had paul volcker cutting rates before inflation hit its peaks. it seems intuitive that if he was a fan of him, what he is ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
5/1/2023 12:40pm
... absolutely, jay powell channeled paul volcker when he wanted to be reappointed. however, you don't correct one mistake by making another mistake and i can imagine the people who been arguing the fed ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
4/28/2023 5:20am
... they cannot had that type of patients. martin: we had a recent dinner with a policymaker who i will not to mention but he viewed that jay powell wants to be saint jerome just like paul volcker is revered as st. paul. the main takeaway is jay powell ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
4/19/2023 10:39pm
... disrupted. you have benchmarks well above deposit rates, we have not seen that since paul volcker. the banks will have to reprice their business. you see them out today, advertising well into the fives, ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
4/12/2023 5:20pm
... the government was writing checks they could not cash. not just the u.s. government, but lots of governments. it went back down because the chairman decided he would be a fed governor and acted more like paul volcker than a money ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
4/12/2023 5:19pm
... volcker. i do not think it is that big of a deal. 25 basis points. but i think that will be the last hike. there is still data between now and then that they don't. sonali: in the event of a ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
4/10/2023 10:09am
... you have had the fed raise rates, and as you know, when jerome powell talked about channeling his inner paul volcker, you knew he was going to invert the curve. he has done it in an historic way. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
4/5/2023 2:13am
... trillion, record high. that money could come back into markets once the central banks win the battle royale against inflation. if you go back to the 1980's and paul volcker in the battle against inflation, we saw a rally in u.s. equities and ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Americas
3/27/2023 2:05pm
... and i think it is looking more like, like volcker, which is great for inflation, but it is also bad for the banks. guy: edward, taking a step back ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Americas
3/27/2023 2:04pm
... burns, did not blink and reverse too soon, and like volker did not intentionally cause a recession. this is where we are, we are at this precipice between burns and volcker. who does jerome powell want to ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
3/22/2023 0:32am
... also cash treasuries. we are watching the two year yield very closely. you can see that actual volatility has now eclipsed the era of the financial crisis. we are back at the times of paul volcker. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/20/2023 10:41am
... paul volcker? bruce: let's hope neither for our six. -- neither for our sakes. jonathan: that is bruce kasman with us. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/14/2023 10:52am
... and achieve full employment. we've been in a situation there were only one issue was priced in that was too high and now they have to balance between financial stability -- tom: i went back pre--volcker in ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
3/14/2023 0:01am
... the focus very much on where that material comes online above the 4% mark at the start of trading here. we did not see that biggest repricing yesterday, the biggest drop in treasuries since the paul volcker area -- era. _ ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
3/13/2023 10:56pm
... let's take a look at how we are setting up when it comes to this tuesday session. we had another day of bond yields plunging, the biggest since the paul volcker era. concerns about u.s. banking, ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Australia
3/13/2023 10:36pm
... around that since the era of paul volcker in the early 1980's. you can see that circle in red. surpassing what we saw in the black monday market crash in 1987. a third straight day of massive ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
3/10/2023 6:49pm
... many bad loans. we have not seen this kind of thing. the only president really is roughly in 1980 when paul volcker raised short-term rates to 14%. then you had all kinds of thrifts fail for this reason. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/10/2023 12:42pm
... it was not just the downshift. he could have stuck with 25's but he just started -- just sounded less and less like volcker. i said earlier that the speech at jackson a host of the test of time and they could have downshifted and gone down to 25. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/10/2023 12:41pm
... you can air on the side of too much into it in the pace of 25's . that is the safer approach to peak. i very much believe the volcker fomc would like to stick with that. it is just that we are at a ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/10/2023 12:41pm
... criticism that was a measured pace and did not impact financial conditions. i think chairman powell has made it clear he will not be named an arthur burns. he is going to be paul volcker and wants to air on the side of too much. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/10/2023 11:09am
... more than part of the great zombie roll up, given new rates? tony: it is an impact of the fastest rate hike cycle in history. faster than paul volcker, more significant on an early basis then paul volcker. i have known -- i am known as a ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Americas
3/8/2023 3:17pm
... market reaction to the data, looking at a yield curve, -107 basis points. a deep inversion, the likes of which we have not seen since the volcker era. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/8/2023 1:02pm
... historical perspective. he is her friend. we are back to volker , this is not an analog to paul volcker. jonathon: they think we have ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/3/2023 1:03pm
... when it started just for a moment when it started to look like the trend was starting to fight it flip the other way. tom: the volcker era 12.7% need ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/2/2023 1:37pm
... is -- michael: productivity decreased from 2021 to 2022. the largest annual decline in the measures since 1974. tom: that is it. that gets back to five to four years before volcker and shows ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
3/2/2023 12:20pm
... morning any he reminded me of a note that bank of america put out on february 7 after chairman powell went down to the economic club in washington. he said volcker has left the ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/24/2023 1:54pm
... the theory at the mathematics are being tested. you said to we need to get used to a 1970's or a pre-paul volcker rate regime? michael: it will be a big discussion today at the chicago monetary policy forum. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/13/2023 11:35am
... number one, take response ability, pay attention to how people feel about inflation expectations, and quoting paul volcker, keep at it. that is a quotation from the book by paul volcker. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/8/2023 11:33am
... was the marine coming out of the trenches for paul volcker. he would say what do we have going on with the money supply coming down? ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/8/2023 11:02am
... the debate begins. it's not paul volcker. jonathan: between the fed and this market, the gap is not that big anymore. maybe we don't listen to chairman powell in quite the same way and just focus on the information. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/8/2023 11:01am
... a note from bank of america said -- paul volcker has left the building. that fed's chair is not the fed ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
2/3/2023 12:10pm
... tom: the duration is important. if you take that chart back pre-volcker, what she is calling for his unusual. i am watching new york city real ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
2/1/2023 6:27pm
... timeline has been compressed. the fed is more transparent than it used to be. if alan greenspan or paul volcker was doing something, it took a lot longer for that to be reflected in financial conditions and eventually the real economy. i think that is shortened. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
1/30/2023 3:07am
... years receding. the question here is will the current fed risk making the same mistakes the volcker fed made in the earlier administration? rishaad: dealing with much less ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets
1/17/2023 6:36pm
... end of the tightening cycle? is that the direction central banks are headed? mike: as of today, it looks that way. you go back to when paul volcker was running the fed. we had three months of declining inflation and the fed started ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
1/13/2023 3:39am
... we have seen since paul volcker's days. it is because they really made a terrible blunder in leaving policy too easy for too long ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Markets Asia
1/4/2023 3:08am
... take the lesson on what happened in the 1980's. after paul volcker won the battle against inflation. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
12/30/2022 1:11pm
... it's not so bad if you can get a decent return. it's the old normal, right? i don't remember my parents talk about the volcker era. they weren't talking about the ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
12/30/2022 11:04am
... be paul volcker and do what it takes or do you think he will fear high unemployment. fear real contraction in earnings and then turn tail and cut rates. lisa: we will not recoup our losses today because we are down ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
12/23/2022 12:12pm
... in paul volcker's year, it is not. we are going to get there. one thing they learned, do not start selling because that is the key. tom: we have to go. thank you so much. quincy krosby with the kurds to ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
12/15/2022 0:02am
... signaled higher rates next year. kathleen hays is here with the latest. will the fed be emulating mario draghi's spirit of doing whatever it takes now? the bazooka. or a better metaphor. paul volcker. do have what it takes? ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
12/9/2022 6:02am
... is this a repeat of the volcker era? he says there's a super cycle underway when it comes to commodities. energy stocks won't be a part of it. he's expecting a 20% drop in the sector. what do you make of that? ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/29/2022 12:54pm
... whether it is united 12 months from now as it is today. i think chair powell means what he says, he wants to behave in a way that is not like paul volcker. whether he can keep the rest of the committee along with him as the on employment rate goes up ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Technology
11/23/2022 4:10am
... company will never take directional threats. the biggest learning curve of the 2008 crisis, and what led to the volcker rule, is if market infrastructure company start ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Technology
11/22/2022 10:10pm
... directional threats. the biggest learning curve of the 2008 crisis, and what led to the volcker rule, is if market infrastructure company start taking bets, the cascade application will be huge. for that reason, when we started the company, we always were on ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/18/2022 1:33pm
... more a year ago than now, this idea that everyone looking back to the giant paul volcker. lisa: are we in the same 1970's ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/18/2022 1:32pm
... with much more leverage than paul volcker dealt with. what is the main risk for the chairman of the fed? bill: you're coming and broken ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
11/7/2022 6:18am
... yield? let's look beyond 20 years and look at the volcker times. the yield inversion was more severe at that time. we are still in the baby steps of yield inversion. ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Daybreak Europe
11/7/2022 6:17am
... if inflation stays elevated i think we have a case for going higher than 5%. that is when we will go back to the volcker playbook. if it does not pullback than the fed has no reason but to keep ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/4/2022 10:31am
... iesco to go back in there has been dip one, dig two. is a greater inversion and we are back to the paul volcker years in the 1980's. on jobs day, an odd job -- an _ ...
Bloomberg: Bloomberg Surveillance
11/4/2022 10:03am
... volcker double recession era. i never thought i would say that. let us start with the two-year. how much for that to go much higher from year -- from here? i think the most hawkish baked on the street right now is ...